Tracking Corona In Australia: Is a Lockdown Imminent?
In this video we look at the data and growth rates behind the corona virus in Australia and other countries and use it to predict where Australia will likely be in 2 weeks and if a lockdown is imminent.
hi i’m ryan from onproperty and today is tuesday march 24 2020 and in today’s episode i want to do something really differently usually i talk about property or personal finance today i want to talk about the Coronavirus and growth rates and how this actually may play out in australia and we can look at the data and look at what has happened in other countries and actually try to predict what is likely to happen in australia based on the measures that are being taken right now so this situation is obviously very overwhelming for a lot of people people are starting to lose their jobs the line and center link is extremely long which is sad to see a lot of my friends and people that i know have lost their jobs so it’s a really hard time but what i found is that by looking at the data by understanding the growth rates by looking at other countries we can get some visibility into what this may look like in australia that helps reduce our overwhelm helps us to deal with the realistic situation and what actually may happen whether we may be going into lockdown or not i do think we will and we can just start to see this grab a hold of this information and then obviously make decisions for our own safety for the safety of our friends and loved ones in the community and also for our finances as well so we’re going to be going through a bunch of numbers it’s a bit nerdy today but hopefully you’ll be able to see these trends understand the basics behind them which can give you a great view into the future and what may happen obviously i don’t have a crystal ball so it’s all speculation but i started knowing that this was going to be a really big issue in australia two weeks ago when i saw this video on COVID-19 and its exponential growth rate now two weeks ago in australia we were not in a bad situation people were laughing at me when i was talking about that we’re going to need to go into lockdown soon they’ll like you’re just being anxious because i get anxious from time to time but i saw this and what this showed is that recorded COVID-19 cases outside mainland china every single day you’re seeing a growth rate of about 15 to 25% every single day day after day now that is important the growth rate is extremely important because if you’re starting with 100 people that means the next day you’re going to have 25 new cases or 125 in total the day after that you’re going to have 125 times by another 25% so 125 times by 1.25 which means you’re going to end up with 156 new cases and then it goes up and up and up once you get started getting up to 1000 cases then you’re getting you know you’re getting 250 new cases every single day then you get up to 10,000 you’re getting 2500 cases every single day so while it starts small that growth trend leads to big and devastating things as things progress i also saw this part of the video where they talk about australia versus japan at the time and that you could say that australia is doing 100 times better than japan however another way to look at this is actually that australia is one month behind japan and if you look at the growth rates of australia we are around that 25% mark so what we’re going to do is look at this website which is well domino’s dot info forward slash Coronavirus so i’ll link up to this as well as this video down below and we can start to say the growth rate in australia new cases in australia as well as in the world so this shows the world but if we scroll down we can start to look at australia and we can start to see the growth rate now it doesn’t tell us the growth rate you have to kind of calculate that yourself but as you can say corona cases in australia as of recording this on tuesday night and now over 2000 people when i watched that video on march 9 it was at 93 people and that was when people were laughing at me and now pretty much everyone’s keeping their kids home from school people are losing their jobs businesses are shutting down you know it’s only going to get more intense from here
and so what we can see in this graph is this exponential growth trend where each day we’re getting more and more cases than the next day if we scroll down we can see daily new cases and you can see this growth in daily new cases so we had one day where it was less but then jumped up massive but this general trend towards the app of daily new cases and if this isn’t reversing then that’s a bad sign so we’re looking at that growth rate we’re looking at the growth of daily news cases to see, okay, is this getting out of control in Australia. And it looks like it is. Another way to look at it is the logarithmic graph, which goes from 10 to 100 for the first bar, then 100 to 1000, then it goes from 1000 to 10,000. Once we go over 10,000, go from 10,000 to 100,000. And if we see a straight line on this graph means we’re having exponential growth. And so every day, there’s going to be more cases than the next. And as we can see, the graph is going up in a very straight line, which indicates that Yeah, we’re in that exponential growth phase. So this is not a great place to be. And I wish I had better information to share with you that social distancing is working, that Australians are doing their part. But I think we’re all smart enough to realize that social distancing probably isn’t going to be enough, the coffee culture, the beach culture, the fact that people just want to be around people, it’s not going to be enough to stop this virus. So what could happen, you know, if we don’t do anything to stop this, then this continues going up, it gets extremely severe. And a lot of people die and overwhelm our healthcare system. Now, the government has already shown that it’s willing to step in, and to close businesses and things like that, are we going to head for a lockdown and do lock downs actually work? Well, Italy went into lockdown on March 9. So the same day I watched that video when Australia was only at 93 people on the ninth of March evil, he was already at 9000 people. And they have a population about three times our size, maybe two and a half times our size. But they were much further ahead than us at 9000 people on that day. That is when they went into lockdown. Now what is interesting is they say it takes about two weeks of lockdown before you start to see actually results. And you start to see Laura in cases. And if we scroll down to the daily new cases, we can see that on March 9, there was 1797 new cases. And we can see that the new cases grew every single day, up until what was that the 12th day or the 11th day on the 21st at 6557 brand new cases on that day. And we’re now only now it’s been 13 or 14 days, starting to see your reversal trend where two days in a row, there’s actually less cases than the day before. So I’ve had single days where there’s less cases. But then it’s always got this growing upward trend when I got two days in a row where there’s less cases, and it looks like a downward trend. So we’re going to need to watch that. So why is this important? Because if we go from March 9, and where we are there, if Australia goes into lockdown and takes the same measures as Italy, then it’s reasonable to expect a similar outcome that we’re going to continue to grow for another 11 to 12 days before we start to see a reduction. And even still this reduction 4700 on the ninth only had 1700. So it’s still three times the daily new cases that it was when they first went into lockdown. So some pretty serious stuff. And then sorry to be so intense about this. But you know, obviously it’s very intense. And there’s a lot of people’s health at risk. There’s a lot of people’s jobs and businesses at risk as well. It’s also interesting to see that from March 9, we had 9000 cases in Italy. And then over the two weeks in lockdown, it’s gone up to around 64,000. So you’re basically looking at what is that seven times.
So 9060 64,000 divided by 9000. You’re looking yet at about seven times what it was when it started. So if Australia went into lockdown today, so we go to the countries, and then we scroll down. And we look at Australia, if we go into lockdown today at 2136 cases 2136 times by seven, then in two weeks, you know we could potentially be at around 15,000 cases. So this is how it gets out of hand and grows so quickly. So do we think Australia’s going to locked out we’ve got that exponential growth curve, which is bad, the growth rates are too fast, which is not good. If we look at another country, which is actually in my opinion, very close to Australia in where they’re at is the UK. I kind of think the UK is about one to two days ahead of us. UK today went into lockdown or stay at home or whatever they’re calling it says a percentage of their population. So population of England is about 56 million. Okay, so if we look at 6650665 dera divided by what was it how many million 56,000,056 123123 then we can see that it is what percentage of that that’s about 1% or 1.1% of the population if we look at australia which is about 25 million and we have about 2100 cases divided by 25 million then we can see that we’re at 0.84% so we’re just a little bit behind the uk uk has gone into staying at home or that sort of locked down today and so it makes sense that because we’re continuing at this growth rate because it’s exponential the percentage of our population is going to get very similar to where the uk is today within the next couple of days so therefore i predict that you know the government will have to take more extreme measures to curb this virus in australia now obviously it’s up to the government and what they do i can’t predict that i don’t have any insight or knowledge into that i’m just looking at this data and so what we want to say is something like china where if we look at the graph now china no one knows if this data is actually real or they’re not testing people or they’re lying about their data but when you look at the linear as well as when you look at the logarithmic rather than saying just a straight upward line you want to start to see this curve towards the horizontal and the horizontal as well here is when not many more people are getting it anymore and it’s staying pretty stable so this is the shape that we want to see in our graph of australia so you can check in with this website again i’m gonna leave the links to this as well as this video in the description down below if you want to nerd out on this stuff and check it out but we want to see our graph start to turn and start to bend around and go towards the horizontal and it’s not there yet so you can start to see that you know when we looked at italy you can’t make a change and then this just bends towards the horizontal overnight and people start getting it there is a delay of a couple of weeks where it continues to go up and continues to grow as we saw in italy so australia hasn’t taken those extreme measures we’re still on this growth curve which means if we look forward for the next couple of weeks we’re going to see continuing growth are likely going to see continuing growth of this if lockdown happens we’re likely going to see continuing growth up until around that two week mark where changes start to take effect but it’s good to see that with italy you know you’re starting to see that decline and a monitor that over the next few days and see that decline continues because that’s a model for the rest of the world as to whether this actually works and as well like a last thing to end on which again is not i guess the best news either is that if we look at italy
and the total cases in italy at around 64,000 and you’ve got 60 million people in the country that’s just 0.1% of the country that’s been exposed to the virus now obviously there’s people who haven’t been tested the number may be much higher than that but you still got just a small population that’s been exposed to the virus and it’s been this extreme and so really to get herd immunity and to get people who have caught the virus and gotten better and who are less likely to catch it again you’re going to need a lot of people to get it and so is it over in italy no it’s not so just a tiny percentage of the population that has it and given how contagious this thing is and you know the fact that we don’t have a vaccine yet or great treatments yet it’s looking like we may be in this for the long run so there you have a bunch of different data that you can start to look at look at realistically the situation start to predict what’s going to happen in australia based on what’s happened in other countries and the actions and the measures that they’ve taken italy is obviously way ahead of us then if you want to go and look at some other countries behind italy you can start to look at spain which went into lockdown second then you can start to look at france as well you can also start to look at the usa which is ahead of us uk is a couple of days ahead of us to get an idea of okay where may this actually go and while it’s daunting while it’s not great news at least we can be realistic about it and to say okay given where we’re at are lockdowns likely in australia yes will that severely affect businesses jobs and the economy yes but then the government’s doing all these stimulus packages as well as income protection and helping people they’re meeting i think tonight to talk about the tenancy act and freezing mortgages as well rent payments for people affected by this so how this is gonna play out economically and well the government’s going to do to support people through this what we know is that eventually what’s going to happen is that people will get it and then once they get it they’re less likely to get it again so eventually less and less people get it and this thing will die up it’s not going to last forever or maybe we’ll get a vaccine and we make people immune that way but eventually this is going to flatten out and the economy will recover like it always has recovered in the past and the government is pulling out all the stops to make sure that people get through this time and to try and make sure as well that businesses make it through this time that when we’re then allowed to guard again people are allowed to work normally again that the economy can bounce back and bounce back quickly if the government just does nothing let’s all these businesses crumble and fall and go into bankruptcy and now you’ve got all of these shops that are no longer leased out to businesses when we can all go out again it’s going to take time for those shops to be refilled with new businesses and people to put investment into filling out those doors and growing businesses and the economy is going to take a lot longer to recover so the government’s doing these things now to try and keep people afloat so once we get through this once everyone’s had it gotten better we will say obviously some people pass away which is really sad but once we’ve gotten through this then they want to bounce back and then we may potentially have a bull run after the spanish flu in 1919 you then saw the roaring 20s which then led up to the great depression in 1929 so who knows if we’ll have a repeat of what happened a century ago it’s very strange that it’s happened basically 100 years later but yeah that’s what the government’s trying to do to make sure that the economy can bounce back so when everyone can go out again then there will be jobs for people and this isn’t going to be a forever thing you’re not going to be unemployed forever people are going to lose their jobs forever but it does look like it’s going to get a bit worse before it gets better so
some news i know but hopefully this data and hopefully this information has enlightened you on what may happen and you can start to make some predictions as to how this may progress in australia so you can prepare for the health of yourself the health of your friends and family as well as prepare financially for how this may affect you in the future i will be doing a videos with ben everingham buyer’s agent from pumped on property talking more properties specific and how this may affect the property market moving forward so look out for that video tomorrow make sure you subscribe to this channel so you can learn more about that because the property market does work differently to the share market it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out and then i’ll have more videos in the future about surviving this recession and thriving in this recession some people will be hit hard and lose their jobs and struggle to get by other people will go by largely unscathed and still keep their jobs and be in a really good position to buy distressed assets and to grow their financial freedom faster so i want to be there to help both types of people those of you who are struggling and who needs support through that and a way through that and provide ideas for that as well as the people who are doing well and this is your opportune time to actually grow your investment portfolio and to build towards your ultimate financial goals so recessions not everyone is hit hard some sectors do better than others there’s opportunities a lot of people get hurt as well let’s work out how to survive and thrive through this and i’ll be there for you thanks so much for tuning in again make sure you subscribe give this video thumbs up and share it with people if you think that they’ll find this data useful it’ll reduce overwhelm for them because they can start to understand how this may play out in australia and why two weeks ago everyone was laughing at me when i was talking about lockdowns but because i could see the data i knew that basically we were going to get there anyway so you can be one of those people that can see the future start to predict the future start state actions accordingly which i did myself as well took my kids out of private school prepared really lowered my expenses prepared to eat from home be able to afford to do that and just looked at my life and got ready i’m still not completely prepared but i had two weeks where everyone else is just doing it today so you can start to see that sort of stuff so share this if you find it helpful subscribe thanks so much for tuning in and until next time stay positive