Why Cash Flow Is King in 2019 and Beyond
Cash flow is going to be king in 2019 and beyond because the market is changing and it’s very different to what it was like back in 2015-2016. Here’s why cash flow will only become more important moving forward
0:00 – Introduction
2:37 – #1: Market Instability
10:45 – #2: Removal of Negative Gearing Benefits
15:02 – #3: High Property Growth Unlikely To Continue
20:00 – #4: Positive Cash Flow Can Give You a Clear Path to Financial Freedom
23:08 – Summary of the 4 points
24:08 – Market conditions create opportunities for people investing for long term cash flow
26:28 – What this look like when it’s actually implemented
I firmly believe that cashflow is going to be king in 2019 and beyond. And there’s a few reasons that I believe that. And today I’ve got with me Ben Everingham buyer’s agent from pumped on property. How’s it going, Ben? Awesome. How are you doing? Very good. So you are someone personally in your own investment portfolio who’s been moving towards cash flow investments now. So I’m pretty excited to talk with you today about why cash flow is king in 2019 and beyond because obviously the market’s changing. Things are different now to what they were back in 2015 2016 yeah.
Yeah. So I thought you were going to get going. I was going to keep going, but I forgot what I was going to say. I get safe freight excited about cash flow just because I realized that some point that no matter how much equity I have, I can’t eat it unless I borrow against it. And I don’t really like borrowing money from the bank and paying more interest on it just to be able to pay my wages.
Yeah. So to access it, you either need to borrow against it or you need to sell the property in order to access the equity. But by selling the property you’re going to lose your rental income as well as lose potential growth as well. And I was talking to an investor recently and he was saying, I see properties as golden eggs that if I need to I can sell a property and then live off those profits. And Alan saying, no, no, no. I see property as like geese that lay golden eggs. And by selling off a property you actually killing the yeah.
Gaze and you know, and I feel like you are a vegetarian, so I can see why I’ve had a problem with this. And it’s funny that I probably sit somewhere between both of you, like I don’t want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg because I love that reoccurring income stream for life. But I also buy properties with the sole intention of riding the market up or renovating them or developing them into a profit to sell them to power off chunks of debt on my golden goose is over here. So sort of in between.
And for some reason we’ve created another analogy that involves hurting animals. Even though I’m a vegetarian,
Chris Froome Sydney’s going to be hammering me cause he’s always saying we have very violent towards animals, particularly Ryan.
So it definitely not because I think that there’s enough room to swing a cat and all of this other side as get the cutlass Stein’s. Yeah, hit two birds with one stone. Um, okay so but we were definitely against violence against animals. Let’s just make that clear and this is going so off track. So let’s get back on track. We have four
reasons why cash flow is going to be king moving forward. The first reason is market instability. Now what I’m going to do, Ben, is overlay this key findings. So there was an SQM research article that was done or research report that was done and they’ve got some scenarios that they’ve mapped out based on potential future market conditions and they’ve highlighted the key capitals cities and what the growth projections are for those depending on different scenarios that may play out different governments that may get in, whether or not we’re going to get price cuts when it comes to interest rates as well. So John, talk a little bit about that Ben and how obviously volatile this looks.
Yeah, so there’s a lot of data in this report and I highly recommend people going and checking out that SQM march report. Um, but effectively what they did is they looked at what happened last time. Negative gearing was strapped in Australia and overlaid the current economic conditions or stage of the cycle we’re in and sort of looked at three different scenarios. So the first scenario was effectively the cash, right, which is effectively the money that is lent out to the banks is dropped by half of 1% in late 2019 or early 2020. Um, rental returns rise labor gets into government and negative gearings change next year. Um, the second scenario was there was no change to the cash rate, but everything else I just mentioned happened light. The gets in negative gearing strapped. The third scenario was the cash rate drops a little bit and negative gearing stays because liberal stays in how our, and it’s crazy dude. Like how much of a range is there between the three different scenarios?
Yeah, there’s a huge range and if you’re listening with the podcast for example, let’s look at Brisbane. The first scenario, which is the cash rate caught at negative gearing gets strapped. Brisbane’s minus 3% to plus 2% between 2020 to 2022. The second scenario where negative gearing changes but there’s no cash rate change. Brisbane, they’re saying minus 7% to plus 1%. But then scenario number three that if we do get the rate cuts, negative gearing stays and we have a stable economy, then they’re saying Brisbane could grow plus seven to plus 13% between 2020 and 2022. So obviously some very like a large range of different forecasts and then Sydney is even more different as well. But being at worst case scenario, they’re looking at minus 14% or Melbourne, they’re saying worst case scenario minus 16 but then saying best case you’re looking at plus 14% so just there’s a wide range of what could happen based on market conditions. So we, we are kind of in this time at the moment where the market is unstable and people don’t exactly know what’s going to happen or where it’s going to go in the future. And there’s a lot of different factors at play that are going to affect that.
No, I just want to say something there that is the short term outlook. You know we’re talking about now to 2022 which feeling listened and Fred Harrison have all been calling for the last 20 years. This is the mid cycle phase of the property market globally and the global economic cycle. So even if Labour or liberal conversation wasn’t happening here and who was going to govern Australia for the next three to four years wasn’t happening, we’d still be in the exactly the same economic environment that we are right now because it is so natural for this to happen. If you understand your history at this stage, um, you know, that’s sort of like the house price forecast for capital growth. And as Ryan said, there’s a huge range. Um, but what they did is they looked at what happened between, was it 1980 1985 to 1987 when negative gearing was strapped last time.
Yup. And I was catching up with an agent in, um, one of the beach side suburbs of Brisbane last Wednesday and she’s, she’s running her own business for 27 years. And she said to me last time it happened, renting traced in Brisbane in 18 months by 15%. And I was kind of like, absolutely no way. Like you’re just an old age is talking rubbish. But then if you look at the dwelling rent or the house rent forecasts based on these three scenarios, do you want to walk them through like what Brisbane could look like and let’s see if he could look like just again to show people based on government decisions what could happen.
Yeah, and that’s the thing, that’s what’s really interesting as well with this forecast is that you’re looking at price drops in some of these forecasts in some of these areas, but at the same time you’re looking at price drops, you’re looking at rental increases as well, which I think is really important for people to understand that prices of property and rents a property don’t necessarily work hand in hand. They don’t work in tandem with each other. Yeah,
and he almost work completely out of tangent to be honest with you. Based on history, like one moves, the other one follows and vice a versa.
Yeah. Well and I think one to highlight is that the scenario to where Brisbane might be minus 7% to plus 1% they’re saying the dwelling rents forecasts for that same scenario is plus 13 plus 22%
if my rents in Brisbane increase by 22% between now and 22 myself and my clients will be absolutely loving life. That will be thing. Yeah,
that’s the thing and that’s why I get so excited about as well with cashflow is that when we have marketing stability in terms of capital growth and the price of assets, when it comes to rental income, when it comes to positive cashflow, there’s kind of two aspects here. The first is that if you are in a positive cashflow situation where you’ve got more rental income coming in, then your property is costing you in total. You’re in a position where you can quite easily hold that property because not only is it paying for itself not only as the people renting your property effectively paying off your mortgage for you, but you also have money leftover as well. So positive cashflow really allows you to weather the storms that really allows you to go through these periods of instability and still be making money and still be able to hold your assets quite easily no matter what kind of happens in your life because you’ve got enough money coming in.
Whereas if in the situation where you’re negatively geared and you’re paying money each and every month in order to hold that property and then all of a sudden that property is going backwards in value, you’re losing money in two different ways and that’s a very stressful place to be. Whereas being positive cashflow just allows you to see through those times of instability as well as the potential that if you are investing for cash flow and if that is your goal, then during these times of instability you can actually get some great rental growth as well, which is pretty exciting.
Yeah, and you know, like take the SQM research and take Simon precis staff and take Phil Anderson stuff and take what you’re hearing from us, which we never really have an opinion do we? It’s just like interpreting other people’s data. But you know like everyone’s got a different idea about what’s going to come and I don’t get too caught up in the noise anymore. Like I just have a clear plan in place. The same as you do Ryan and I invest for cashflow. I invest for long term growth and are taking advantage of the buying cycle when I can and what happened year to year. Like any of these scenarios are good for me. Like if the marketplace declines in value a little bit, it represents a buying opportunity. If rental returns increase a little bit then it means on the properties that are whole. Right now my rents increase. Like there’s really no downside because I’ve got a 30 year approach to this. But if you’re that invested sitting at home worrying about what’s going to happen this month on your properties, then you know maybe don’t look at the data right now because chances are it could look negative in the short term.
Yup. And obviously there are some markets that are more volatile than others. We definitely advise doing research before investing into an area and we are personally low risks investors ourselves. And so it’s up to you how you read this data and what you want to invest in. But yeah, so market instability is the first one. The second one is the removal of negative gearing. So why is cashflow going to be king in 2019 and beyond? And that’s the fact that if Labor doves get in there and they have talked about change making changes to the way negative gearing works. And so we did, well, I did a video on that, which I’ll link up down below kind of summarizing those changes if you don’t know what they are. But basically in the past, if you used to lose money on a property, you could offset that loss against your taxable income for that financial year. Basically the money that you earn through your wage. And so labor is talking about changing that and you not being able to do that anymore. And so the idea of losing money on a property to save money, if negative gearing does get changed, then that’s kind of not really going to be a conversation anymore. And so there’s less incentive to be losing money on a property.
It just blows my mind that you’d even think about losing money to make money in the future. Like each side, Kiana and Jody with my approach to investing, which is always longterm growth and cashflow orientated. Like, you know, I’m grateful that I do get the negative gearing benefit of the properties that I hold, but it’s not even a thought. Like I don’t, I literally don’t even factor into account the government subsidies on any property that I’ve had in the last 10 years because I, I honestly don’t even think about them. Like that’s just a little bit of cream that, you know, for a period of time on a positively geared property that I own made the property even more positive. It’s just, you know, like if, if I just, I spoke to this guy in Sydney this week, he’s a client, like he’s not a client, he’s from your community, Ryan.
And he is any big money over 350 grand a year in HR recruitment. And he had just been sold by like, uh, well, uh, well Russ first affected property spruiker in Australia that he’s strategy should be to save tax and they’d stitched him up in this really small piece of land with a brand new property really, really north of Brisbane, like 40 50 case in the city and the whole drain that they’d, sodium was like save seven or eight grand a year in tax. And I was like, what about your long term growth? What about your cash flow? What about applying the fundamentals of buying bigger blocks and buying closer to the city or walking distance to the beach? Like what about, you know, the cashflow on this property medium term. And he hadn’t even thought of it because I’d like pigeon him down this hole and I just, I think about 80% of new properties in Australia getting sold that way. It’s just, it really, it really pisses me off to be honest with you because so many people get stitched up in this idea that doesn’t even matter. You know, it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter unless you’ve bought a really, really underperforming property with a really negative position, you know, but is that the right type of asset for most people to be holding anyway?
Yeah, and that’s the thing and we have have always been advocates of cashflow and investing in a really good area that is likely to grow as well. So we always say cash flow and capital growth. So we’re not saying that cashflow is king in 2019 and that you should forego capital growth and invest in bad areas to get good cashflow. We’re talking about investing in quality suburbs in metro markets to give you both stability to give you growth and to give you a cashflow as well. But I guess what we’re trying to do here is to change your mindset and to change the conversation around Australian property investing that it has always just been about let’s negative gear this property and get capital growth. I think cashflow is going to play a much more important role moving forward. And I have been banging on this cashflow idea since I very first started the blog back into,
so seven years ago, like you were too. 2000
Strategy 2011, I think March, 2011 was when you’re looking at eight years now that I’ve been talking about cash flow and why cash flow is so important. And so I think going to become more important moving forward. So removal of negative gearing is obviously going to put more emphasis on cash flow because you can’t improve your cashflow position through negative gearing. Like he used to be able to, if those changes go into place and obviously it was so got to wait until the election to see what happens there. Um, but yeah, definitely something to consider. The third point of why cash flow is going to be important is that the high growth that we’ve seen in the past, we kind of believe that it’s unlikely to continue at such a high rate moving forward. Do you want to talk a bit about that then?
Yes. So, um, if you look at like mastering the Australian housing market by John Lindemann, he makes a point that in the last hundred years, the average house in Australia is an increased by 11% per annum over a hundred years, which effectively means your properties almost doubling in value every seven years. And that’s where that old property doubles in seven to 10 years comes from. Then if you go to the last 50 years, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane have all increased by an average of 9.5% per annum, which effectively means again every seven, eight to 10 years, they’re doubling in value again. Could, you’ve got to remember like it’s compound growth. It’s not just linear. Um, and so we’ve got these model which I can understand why everyone in the past is like just buy a property, just hold it and just, you know, lose a bit of money, lose five grand a year to hold it to make 40 grand a year over the long term.
Like that model makes complete sense to my mum and dad that the problem is wages used to win trace in line with property and back in the good old days when property prices were going like that, wages were about four maybe five, five times the average property price per household in the state or the city that people were buying in where Sydney got up to as high as I think 11 times the average household income. So I read a report over the weekend from Simon Pressley about exactly this point. It’s not that anything’s wrong with the Sydney property market, it’s just that people can’t afford the bloody by the thing anymore. So we’re seeing a correction back to a point where it’s more in line with what people can eat, a stomach or a Ford. Now there are markets around the world, like you know, London’s like New York’s like Singapore’s unlike Hong Kong’s where there’s just so much international money and supply coming into those cities that the average property prices can be significantly above the average income in the city because everyone in the world wants to Wayne in Hong Kong or New York.
But Sydney is not that. Like we think as Australians that city Sydney’s is big international city that everyone wants to know about. It’s not even a blip on the radar to most people around the world. Like it’s a tiny little place out there in Australia where they do a little bit of finance. You know what I mean? Like we just have to get real about this. Like it’s not New York. It can’t be valued at 11 to 20 times the average income in the city because we don’t have this international market of ballers, that one a day there. So what’s happening right now is that I believe incomes aren’t increasing fast enough. If you look at any futurists forecasts about the future, it looks like incomes globally because of automation around the world. And the, and that cheekness of living coming down across the world with energy and cars and everything else is actually going to be lower in the future.
And it’s like property prices can’t exponentially increasing. Incomes aren’t moving, at least in line with them. So one benefit we do have in the future as there’s more double household income. So instead of me and Ryan working a job age for our household, now there’s two income earners, which means property prices in a lot of areas could increase a bit. But you know, I, I do my personal projections, I’m half the 50 year average at around about four to 5% in your Sydney’s and Melbourne’s in Brisbane. And I’m just pulling that number out of the air. I have no idea. Even if that’s possible.
Yeah. But I think the idea here is we’re not economists and we don’t understand this stuff in full detail, but there’s a kind of us out there that we read that, um, do a lot more analysis than us. And the general consensus tends to be to be more conservative with future property protections in terms of prices than in the past. And so the old strategy of just invest and you’re going to get guaranteed your property is going to double every seven to 10 years. It looks like that may not be happening in the future. Obviously we don’t know, but we’d like to be more conservative in our projections of that. And I don’t want to bet my financial future on something like that that I believe history is going to continue as it always has. Even though wages aren’t increasing like they used to, even though interest rates at the moment as cheap as they have been since the 60s and can we really increase interest rates? Can the government do that and keep the economy stable? Like that’s definitely in question as well. So, and how much lower can interest rates get to make properties more affordable? So there’s a whole bunch of things at play there. That means that the growth moving forward may not be as fast as it was in the past. And so having a cashflow play that leads us to point number four which is positive cash flow gives you a clear long term path to financial freedom.
Um, hold on,
I’m just going to cut. Can you edit that? Sorry, I just it wasn’t loud enough. A car came past. I couldn’t hear the transition. That’s all right
and that leads us to point number four which is that positive cashflow can give you a long term path to financial freedom. It can give you a clear path to financial freedom. Whereas with capital growth and with being in a negative cash flow situation, you obviously need your property to go up in value in order to access that equity in order for you to become financially free. But with positive cashflow you’re able to see a clear path to financial freedom, which has, if I invest in this property, high quality property that’s going have long term demand, ideally in an area that’s going to grow as well, get rental growth as we’ve talked about as well. Over time, what I’m going to be able to do is take the rental income to pay off that property, completely owned that property outright and then live off the rental income of that property. So whether the market is in stable, whether or not negative gearing gets abolish, whether or not we do get the capital growth that we’ve seen over the last 50 or 100 years, if that continues or if it doesn’t, whatever happens, we can say clear path to financial freedom through paying off that property, owning it outright and living off the rental income.
I absolutely love that as a strategy man in like, you know, when you started to sort of educate me personally on that concept that the rental income is really the future of the Australian property market place. Like most of the other markets in the world exists based on that model. It kind of like, it took me years and years to be honest with you, to get it properly. Um, you know, it’s not that I’m not going for capital growth because I am like, I don’t know what’s coming in the future and a huge disclaimer here like no one does, but I’m positive about the future of the world over the next 30, 5,000 years. Like population is going to increase, technology’s going to become better. Cost of living is going to continue to come down as technology solves our problems around energy and everything else.
And it’s, you know, I do expect longterm over 20 or 30 year period to get meaningful capital growth out of what I buy today. And I might be wrong, you know, um, who knows. Like that’s just my personal opinion, but just in case that doesn’t happen, I’m going to own three or four really high quality assets that give me a couple hundred thousand dollars a year passive income for life regardless of if Marina GFC, we’re in the best economic environment of all time or the worst, you know, it gives me some stability that I can count on. You know, especially if I’ve got eight income streams coming across four properties because I have a house in a granny flat, you know I lose two of those eight income streams, I’ve still got 75% of my income coming in, which gives me stability and it’s a huge thing like knowing that tomorrow when you wake up that you have an income stream outside of your job, your business or yourself that provides your, your family with the passive income for life. It’s kind of like that insurance policy against your future self. And I strongly believe that everyone should be working towards that first and then deciding what’s next after that. But it doesn’t take that much to actually try to strategy that would allow someone to do that on a modest income in the future.
Yup. And so they have the four points of why we believe that cashflow is king in 2019 and beyond. Just to summarize those, the first one was market instability. No one really knows what’s going to happen in the short term. A removal of negative gearing is a potential or changes to negative gearing is working the high growth, unlikely to continue in the future due to wages not growing at the same rate as well as some other things. And then also getting that clear path to financial freedom and financial security for yourself and your family, which is obviously very important personally to both of us having three children. We want to provide that security and that stability for them. And so obviously it’s up to you if that’s a goal that you want, but for us we believe that’s really important and having a clear goal to achieve that based on whether or not the market does continue to grow or not I think is so key. So
you know, regardless of what happens with market conditions over the next few years where the prices continue to drop in Sydney and Melbourne where the Labor gets in, whether they cut interest rates back, none of that, none of this stuff matters. Like it’s so short term, like to some people it’s going to be the scariest couple of years of their life to other people. It’s going to be the biggest buying opportunity since the last year of say, you know like it all depends on your level of education in your plan to either put your head in the sand and wait for things to be good again or to actually take advantage of conditions. Like my sister crystal just bought a property in the beaches of Brisbane now the lean value last year on its own without a house on it was $415,000 she just bought a two bedroom home that she can rent for 390 bucks a week for $340,000 she pretty much got the house.
What’s that? Like 60 75 grand below what the land was worth right now. And that’s not because that market has declined, it’s just because people have stopped buying because they’re fearful. Like it’s just, it excites me man. Like I’ve been waiting for this market and I’m not saying it’s the right one for everyone at all. I in fact think most people should sit out of it if they don’t know what they’re doing. But for smart people that have a longterm approach that care about cash flow and buying at the right time, far out the next two years look interesting.
Yup. And so if you want to learn more about how cashflow can work for you, and if you want to design an investment strategy that uses cashflow to help you achieve your goals, then Ben Simon and the team over at pumped on property are offering free strategy session so you can get on the phone to them and get personal about where you’re at, what you’re trying to achieve, and how a strategy that utilizes cashflow can actually help you achieve your property investment goals. So head over to OnProperty.com.au/session and you can learn more about those free strategy sessions over there. But I really think that’s going to help a lot of people who hear about what we’re talking about on today’s episode and they think, okay, this sounds like it makes sense. I want that security, I want that cashflow, but how can I actually do that? How can I implement that in my life? That’s what those free strategy sessions are designed for. So you can get a clear understanding of how you can actually take some steps to move towards. So go to OnProperty.com.au/session to check that out. And until next time, stay positive.
Can I say something? I know he just signed off, but yeah, I just want to say something. They’re like, I was speaking to Bretton K, they’re clients of ours standing Canala beach in Sydney. Um, he’s got a good business. She’s a part time worker with a mom and I just, I wanted to show people like what this physically looks like implemented just so that there’s an idea out there because as you said, like there’s a misconception that it’s hard to do this, you know, it’s like hard to get growth and cashflow. So I talked to them last night. This morning. I found it amazing piece of off market land for them. 660 square meter block, 19 ks from the city according to the hot spotting blog and podcasts, Australia’s hottest suburbs right now. Like all that bullcrap. North Brisbane is a strong region right now and we’re going to pick up the piece of land for $300,000 they’re going to be able to house and the granny flat on it for two 65 so they’re in it for like what, 565,000 the property is going to rant according to the rental appraisal for 720 bucks a week.
So seven 20 a week rent, 565 k spend. Um, and then that because they’re buying it in a personal name, they are going to get depreciation benefits regardless of which party gets in. And I think they’ll get about $160 a week back. The accountant worked out for them, you know, for the first five years of owning the property through depreciation, which makes the rent return like 865 bucks a week after tax on a $565,000 purchase price. Like Brisbane is cheap to buy. Like just you know, people should start educating themselves like they these opportunities around where you can get cash flow, where that’s cashflow neutral after you pay for your costs plus your interest and your principal like it, it longterm should get longterm capital growth, like it’s low maintenance. There’s just so many good options around that. If you’re open to educating yourself, you can go find for yourself. You know what I mean?
Yeah, and then that I guess takes some of the fee out of the market as well. They can see that that’s a good investment. Despite some of the short term instability in the market, they know that they’re buying something good. If it goes back a little bit, then it doesn’t really matter because they’ve kind of built in equity in building that property and they’ve got the cash flow for it to see it through as well.
I estimate that they’ll make 10% equity on the way in. So worst case scenario in these projections we were talking about Brisbane goes back by minus 7% within three years, they’re still been getting like 1415 grand a year of passive income over that time on top of their wages. And for them it’s not even about that. This is a 30 year buying hold in 20 years, that 720 bucks a week, we’ll be closer to a thousand with a 2.5% increase in the rent per year within 30 years. You know, I don’t know what it’d be renting for, I don’t know that number, but you know, one of every one of them to them and damn line is a 50 grand a year income stream in 15 years time. And it’s, you know, it’s, it’s doable. They’re having kids, they’ve got businesses, they’ve got part time jobs, like they’re in that heavy stage of life. But it’s interesting, you know, that’s all I’m saying.
Yeah, it’s very interesting and it does seem very doable as well. It’s very doable for a lot of people out there. So yeah, again, if you do want to learn how you can do this to yourself, grab it, get a free strategy session, get on the phone and talk to ban or talk to Simon and work out. Is this something that’s going to suit you? You can then decide to work with them and get their help in buying one of these properties if you want, but you don’t have to. You can go and take those ideas and take the health or they give you and then go and implement this yourself or decided to stay out of the market and do it in a couple of years time. Whatever you decide to do is completely up to you. But that strategy session is so worth it. It’s completely complimentary as well. So go to OnProperty.com.au/session. Type that into your browser. Now check it out, read about it, and then you can book a time that suits you.
Check it out. I just want people to get an idea, like go figure it out. How to do that on your own with someone else’s help, whatever. Like I just don’t want people to miss the boat in 10 years. Regret this timing of the market. That’s all. Yup. Perfect. All right. That’s it from us today and until next time, stay positive.